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BCTF Research Report
SECTION IV
2005-SD-02
British Columbia school-age-population projections, to 2013
By Colleen Hawkey
Research Analyst
June 2005 According to BC STATS (Ministry of Management Services), the population of British Columbia is getting larger and older, and between 2001 and 2031 will have increased by almost 36%. However, the population of school-age British Columbians will follow a quite different pattern: “The population of school age (5–17 years) will decline slightly over the next 10 years or so, but then will begin a slow increase up to current levels by 2031.” (British Columbia population projections, accessed on the BC STATS web site at http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/pop/Project/P30BCIntro.pdf, on June 13, 2005.)
Projections of public-school-aged headcount enrolments by district are available for a 17-year period (1997 to 2013). According to this source (Ministry of Education Standard Report 1558B, Projection report public school aged headcount (excludes adults), June 15, 2004), the public-school-age population will decrease slowly over the projection period. Between 2004 and 2013 there will be a 6.8% decrease. See the tables details.
Table 1: Provincial public-school-age population projections (headcount)
(2004 and subsequent years are forecast)
|
Elementary Headcount |
Year-over-year % Change Elementary |
Secondary Headcount |
Year-over-year % Change Secondary |
Total School Age |
Year-over-year # Change |
Year-over-year % Change Total |
1997 |
359,863 |
|
247,618 |
|
607,481 |
|
|
1998 |
355,265 |
-1.3% |
251,316 |
1.5% |
606,581 |
-900 |
-0.15% |
1999 |
354,998 |
-0.1% |
251,167 |
-0.1% |
606,165 |
-416 |
-0.07% |
2000 |
352,089 |
-0.8% |
250,251 |
-0.4% |
602,340 |
-3,825 |
-0.63% |
2001 |
348,545 |
-1.0% |
249,946 |
-0.1% |
598,491 |
-3,849 |
-0.64% |
2002 |
341,201 |
-2.1% |
248,632 |
-0.5% |
589,833 |
-8,658 |
-1.45% |
2003 |
334,754 |
-1.9% |
248,003 |
-0.3% |
582,757 |
-7,076 |
-1.20% |
2004 |
329,583 |
-1.5% |
247,890 |
0.0% |
577,473 |
-5,284 |
-0.91% |
2005 |
324,286 |
-1.6% |
248,320 |
0.2% |
572,606 |
-4,867 |
-0.84% |
2006 |
319,312 |
-1.5% |
248,250 |
0.0% |
567,562 |
-5,044 |
-0.88% |
2007 |
314,745 |
-1.4% |
247,842 |
-0.2% |
562,587 |
-4,975 |
-0.88% |
2008 |
310,303 |
-1.4% |
247,340 |
-0.2% |
557,643 |
-4,944 |
-0.88% |
2009 |
306,402 |
-1.3% |
246,153 |
-0.5% |
552,555 |
-5,088 |
-0.91% |
2010 |
304,830 |
-0.5% |
243,129 |
-1.2% |
547,959 |
-4,596 |
-0.83% |
2011 |
304,782 |
0.0% |
239,388 |
-1.5% |
544,170 |
-3,789 |
-0.69% |
2012 |
305,764 |
0.3% |
235,187 |
-1.8% |
540,951 |
-3,219 |
-0.59% |
2013 |
307,799 |
0.7% |
230,377 |
-2.0% |
538,176 |
-2,775 |
-0.51% |
Note: Excludes home school and adult students.
Source: MoE SR 1558B, June 15, 2004. |
Secondary enrolments will decrease by 7.1% between 2004 and 2013, and elementary enrolments by 6.6% over the period. District data show that there are wide variations in projected changes, with eight districts (see Table 2) expected to show increases, ranging from 1% (Haida Gwaii-Queen Charlotte) to over 20% (Stikine).
Table 2: Districts expected to show increases in public-school-age population, for 2004 and 2013
Dist # |
District |
2004 projection |
2013 projection |
% change |
50 |
Haida Gwaii-Queen Charlotte |
831 |
839 |
1.0% |
75 |
Mission |
7,314 |
7,476 |
2.2% |
34 |
Abbotsford |
19,556 |
20,236 |
3.5% |
36 |
Surrey |
62,582 |
65,345 |
4.4% |
41 |
Burnaby |
24,853 |
26,356 |
6.0% |
40 |
New Westminster |
6,123 |
6,772 |
10.6% |
93 |
Francophone Education Authority |
3,214 |
3,567 |
11.0% |
87 |
Stikine |
302 |
363 |
20.2% |
Source: Source: MoE SR 1558B, June 15, 2004. |
As shown in Table 3, enrolments in 52 of the 60 districts in the province are projected to decline. Southeast Kootenay is expected to experience the largest decrease, of 24.5%, from 2004 to 2013. Saanich (-24.1%), Kootenay-Columbia (-23.6%), Alberni (-23.6%), Delta (-23.3%), Powell River (-22.2%), Nicola-Similkameen (-20.3%), and Campbell River (-20.3%) are also expected to experience 20% decreases.
Table 3: Provincial public-school-age population projections (headcount), by district, for 2004 and 2013
# |
District |
2004 projection |
2013 projection |
% change |
5 |
Southeast Kootenay |
5,981 |
4,515 |
-24.5% |
6 |
Rocky Mountain |
3,729 |
3,153 |
-15.4% |
8 |
Kootenay Lake |
5,783 |
5,071 |
-12.3% |
10 |
Arrow Lakes |
683 |
625 |
-8.5% |
19 |
Revelstoke |
1,374 |
1,265 |
-7.9% |
20 |
Kootenay-Columbia |
4,773 |
3,645 |
-23.6% |
22 |
Vernon |
9,264 |
8,747 |
-5.6% |
23 |
Central Okanagan |
22,001 |
21,593 |
-1.9% |
27 |
Cariboo-Chilcotin |
6,559 |
5,390 |
-17.8% |
28 |
Quesnel |
4,228 |
3,404 |
-19.5% |
33 |
Chilliwack |
12,451 |
12,398 |
-0.4% |
34 |
Abbotsford |
19,556 |
20,236 |
3.5% |
35 |
Langley |
19,423 |
18,678 |
-3.8% |
36 |
Surrey |
62,582 |
65,345 |
4.4% |
37 |
Delta |
16,833 |
12,919 |
-23.3% |
38 |
Richmond |
22,669 |
19,264 |
-15.0% |
39 |
Vancouver |
55,166 |
54,292 |
-1.6% |
40 |
New Westminster |
6,123 |
6,772 |
10.6% |
41 |
Burnaby |
24,853 |
26,356 |
6.0% |
42 |
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows |
15,164 |
13,680 |
-9.8% |
43 |
Coquitlam |
31,692 |
30,261 |
-4.5% |
44 |
North Vancouver |
17,612 |
14,749 |
-16.3% |
45 |
West Vancouver |
6,120 |
5,069 |
-17.2% |
46 |
Sunshine Coast |
4,053 |
3,764 |
-7.1% |
47 |
Powell River |
2,690 |
2,092 |
-22.2% |
48 |
Howe Sound |
4,420 |
4,027 |
-8.9% |
49 |
Central Coast |
317 |
297 |
-6.3% |
50 |
Haida Gwaii-Queen Charlotte |
831 |
839 |
1.0% |
51 |
Boundary |
1,823 |
1,680 |
-7.8% |
52 |
Prince Rupert |
2,824 |
2,439 |
-13.6% |
53 |
Okanagan Similkameen |
2,851 |
2,585 |
-9.3% |
54 |
Bulkley Valley |
2,706 |
2,293 |
-15.3% |
57 |
Prince George |
16,011 |
13,244 |
-17.3% |
58 |
Nicola-Similkameen |
2,865 |
2,282 |
-20.3% |
59 |
Peace River South |
4,682 |
3,900 |
-16.7% |
60 |
Peace River North |
5,800 |
5,543 |
-4.4% |
61 |
Greater Victoria |
20,389 |
19,564 |
-4.0% |
62 |
Sooke |
8,894 |
8,083 |
-9.1% |
63 |
Saanich |
8,680 |
6,591 |
-24.1% |
64 |
Gulf Islands |
1,615 |
1,549 |
-4.1% |
67 |
Okanagan Skaha |
7,164 |
6,428 |
-10.3% |
68 |
Nanaimo-Ladysmith |
15,735 |
15,050 |
-4.4% |
69 |
Qualicum |
5,120 |
4,871 |
-4.9% |
70 |
Alberni |
4,617 |
3,543 |
-23.3% |
71 |
Comox Valley |
9,338 |
7,775 |
-16.7% |
72 |
Campbell River |
6,278 |
5,003 |
-20.3% |
73 |
Kamloops/Thompson |
15,372 |
13,946 |
-9.3% |
74 |
Gold Trail |
1,943 |
1,764 |
-9.2% |
75 |
Mission |
7,314 |
7,476 |
2.2% |
78 |
Fraser-Cascade |
2,246 |
2,002 |
-10.9% |
79 |
Cowichan Valley |
9,462 |
8,047 |
-15.0% |
81 |
Fort Nelson |
1,201 |
1,050 |
-12.6% |
82 |
Coast Mountains |
6,309 |
5,423 |
-14.0% |
83 |
North Okanagan-Shuswap |
7,681 |
6,458 |
-15.9% |
84 |
Vancouver Island West |
507 |
447 |
-11.8% |
85 |
Vancouver Island North |
1,913 |
1,605 |
-16.1% |
87 |
Stikine |
302 |
363 |
20.2% |
91 |
Nechako Lakes |
5,208 |
4,583 |
-12.0% |
92 |
Nisga'a |
479 |
576 |
20.3% |
93 |
Francophone Education Authority |
3,214 |
3,567 |
11.0% |
99 |
Province |
577,473 |
538,176 |
-6.8% |
Source: MoE SR 1558B, June 15, 2004 |